Is It Dinar Time?
Howdy Ya'll,
Forgive the pun. I've been waiting for an opportunity to use it. I have lots of time on my hands to come up with low humor. Puns aside, lets discuss economics.
I am no economist, and I would hesitate in referring to myself as even a speculator, but speculating is what were are doing when discussing the Iraqi Dinar. It has been a hot topic amongst many over here, and I believe for many in the States as well. It is a matter of historical precedents, economic reform, belief in the power of our actions, and blind faith in the future of this country.
The currency of Kuwait went through much the same roller coaster ride following the first Gulf War, and there were optimists and naysayers a plenty likewise. The investment panned out, and there were many who benefited from a risky investment. The Iraqi Dinar is in much the same situation. It is practically worthless, but it is backed by strong technology, a promise of flowing oil, and the support of potential investment from the global community.
When last I checked there is about 6.5 trillion in Dinar in circulation. A good percentage of that has been purchased by foreign investors and expatriate in a very speculative currency venture. The Dinar is roughly worth 0.007 dollars making the exchange at about $1 - IQD1430. There are those, of course, who profit from the sale of currency, and most in the States will be able to purchase Dinar at about $1 - 1000 IQD. The key hope is that it can only go up.
The truth is that there is only one direction for this currency to go. It can only improve. Iraq recently released new Treasure bonds, and the Iraq Stock Exchange is gearing up. The international monetary fund has moved in to help establish an economy, and Iraq based companies are actually beginning to see growth.
I know what criticisms and doubts you have heard regarding this very topic. The news is full of them, and I'm sure they dominate many a dinner table conversation. I am not discounting those possibilities, but I would remind people that there is a reason it is referred to as an investment. A risk investment, no less. I have purchased my own Iraqi currency, and I know full well that my venture could prove fruitless, but that is the inherent fun in an endeavor such as this. My losses would be very near negligible, while the gains could prove great. I do not believe that the Dinar will ever return to pre war levels, but I do believe that it must improve.
In truth, I have very little faith in the abilities of the Iraqi people themselves, as I have just heard a story of a local electrocuting himself after urinating on a high voltage transformer, but I do believe in the ambition of the international community in making this dusty excuse of a country something worth keeping. Far too much investment has been made by others on behalf of this country for failure to be allowed.
An economy will be established, prosperity will flow forth, and those of us with the where with all to take advantage of this unique situation will find the whole endeavor profitable. I don't think I'll be in a position to retire early, but perhaps I can take myself on a vacation with the spoils.
These are my thoughts on the matter. I'm just a simple bear, and I am not trying to provide sound economic advice. I am only voicing my humble opinion on the matter. Perhaps my optimism will prove correct. We can hope.
-Pooh out.
